MTN Nigeria is making a remarkable comeback, rekindling investor confidence ahead of its highly anticipated Q1 2025 earnings release.
After a rough patch marked by massive losses from the 2023 naira crash, the telecom giant’s fortunes appear to be turning. In April, MTN’s shares witnessed an explosion in trading activity — over 11 million shares changed hands in a single day, setting a new record. The stock, which hovered at ₦245 mid-April, pushed up to ₦255.5 by April 27, fuelled by a 50% increase in service prices.
Analysts and investors are betting that the higher tariffs will translate into stronger margins and bring MTN firmly back into profit territory. The company is scheduled to release its Q1 earnings on April 29, a day before its Annual General Meeting — a moment that could officially mark the end of its financial slump.
MTN’s recent struggles have been closely tied to Nigeria’s economic turbulence. The telco lost ₦400.44 billion after tax last year, largely due to a ₦925 billion foreign exchange loss. However, by the fourth quarter of 2024, MTN had staged a partial recovery, posting ₦114.5 billion in after-tax profit and boosting revenue by 36% to ₦3.36 trillion.
The market seems to be rewarding MTN’s resilience. Its liquidity remains high, unlike rival Airtel Africa, which has seen limited share availability and sluggish trading despite a similar tariff adjustment. Airtel’s $100 million share buyback has tightened supply, leaving it far behind MTN in trading volumes.
MTN’s market value currently sits at around ₦5.1 trillion, making it the fourth-largest company on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX). Yet, even with its rising momentum, the stock only ranked 44th in trading volumes in April — a stark contrast to Fidelity Bank’s trading frenzy of nearly 388 million shares in a single day.
Looking to cement its market presence further, MTN Nigeria recently rebranded its home broadband service from MTN Fibre Broadband to FibreX, aligning itself with Nigeria’s national broadband growth plans.
Moreover, MTN has plans for a second public offering announced on April 12, aiming to reduce MTN Group’s stake from 76% to 65%. The offer, however, hinges on a return to profitability — something investors now see as increasingly likely.
Tajudeen Ibrahim, Research Director at Chapel Hill Denham, said, “There’s a general belief that MTN shares are undervalued even after the recent recovery.”
Despite the positive outlook, challenges remain. Soaring inflation and worsening poverty — with nearly half the Nigerian population now living below the national poverty line — could put pressure on consumer spending, including telecom services.
As investors await the Q1 numbers, hopes are high that MTN Nigeria’s comeback is not just a short-term bounce but the start of a sustained recovery.
